Inside My Head

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Can We Really Beat Auburn?

Posted by Kevin on September 14, 2007

Here’s a look at Auburn’s numbers through two games vs. Kansas State and South Florida.

  • rushing offense: 72 carries; 93 yards per game; 1 touchdown
  • passing offense: 33 completions; 65 attempts; 4 int; 2 touchdowns; 197 yards per game
  • scoring offense: 23 points per game
  • rushing defense: 68 carries; 81 yards per game; 2 touchdowns
  • passing defense: 51 completions; 85 attempts; 2 int; 2 touchdowns; 236 yards per game
  • scoring defense: 19.5 points per game

State is averaging 40 more yards a game on the ground and 20 yards less through the air.  We’re 1 turnover behind Auburn in the turnover margin.  Auburn has done considerably better against the run so far, giving up 40 fewer yards on the ground per game and  60 fewer yards per game through the air.  State is 13 out of 30 on 3rd down (43.3%); Auburn is 5 of 28 (17.9%) on 3rd down.  State’s opponents have converted 10 of 26 (38.5%) 3rd downs; Auburn’s opponents have converted 9 of 35 (25.7%).

Auburn struggled mightily against Kansas State and was outplayed for 58 minutes of that game before they finally broke through for a score and got a very late turnover for a second score.  Auburn also turned the ball over some 5 times against South Florida in a game where they should have been soundly beaten (South Florida missed 4 or 5 field goals).

State got their asses handed to them by LSU to open the season, then rebounded to throttle Tulane in the second game.

Both teams are 1-1 and struggling to find some consistency.   Can State really go into a hostile SEC environment and pull off an upset?  I think they can.  Will they?  My guess is they’ll outplay Auburn but fail to take advantage of opportunities and simply run out of gas in the 4th quarter.

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